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CIA Manager Burns later on went to Moscow to try and intimidate Putin into revoking troop buildup on Ukrainian border
[Russell Bentley, a Texan and author of this article, served in the Donbass ground forces. His motivation was to fight fascism; he envisioned himself as an heir to members of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade who volunteered to fight fascism in Spain during the Spanish Civil War.
In role one, Bentley'southward provides an assessment of the current tensions in the Ukraine and the graphic symbol of the regime. Ranked equally one of the most decadent governments in the world, it is a monstrous creation of the U.Due south. empire guilty of large-calibration war crimes.
In role two, Bentley discusses iii potential military options for Russia. CAM's position on this conflict is to endorse the Minsk protocol, which focuses on a diplomatic settlement that offers the Eastern Ukrainian provinces considerable autonomy and could aid defuse tensions in the region.
The tertiary military selection discussed past Bentley—the Kyiv plan which would entail a Russian march on Kyiv—has three main dangers: a) Ukrainian rightists and nationalists would mobilize against the Russians and pro-Russian forces, prompting a prolonged and devastating war that could exist a quagmire for Russia (rather than a cakewalk, as Bentley suggests); b) a Russian invasion would potentially ignite Earth War Iii by drawing in the U.S. and NATO; and c) it could even lead to the advent of nuclear state of war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be conscious of these dangers and intent on restraining hawkish elements inside the Russian military—a practiced thing. At the same time, he has made it articulate that Russian federation will defend its interests and not exist pushed around.—Editors]
Part i
On October xviiith, U.S. Secretarial assistant of Defence Lloyd Austin III met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to assert U.Southward. back up for Ukraine's war against its eastern provinces.
Since the beginning of the disharmonize in 2014, the The states has provided more than $two.v billion in security assistance to Ukraine, including $275 million in military aid that has been announced in the last 10 months under President Joe Biden, a staunch champion of the war from its inception.
In early November, President Biden dispatched CIA Director William F. Burns to Moscow to warn the Kremlin nigh its troop buildup on the Ukraine edge and to try and force it to back off. Secretarial assistant of Land Antony Blinken followed up this by week by threatening Russia farther in a joint press briefing in Washington with the Ukrainian Strange Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Ukraine, nonetheless, started the state of war following the February 2014 U.S. backed insurrection and carried out sustained state of war crimes.
These crimes include: a) the recent kidnapping and torture of a Russian ceasefire monitor in Lugansk; b) a recent assail on Staromaryevka, a settlement of 180 civilians in the de-militarized "Grey Zone," which included the kidnapping of eight more unarmed civilians (who were likewise Russian citizens) by neo-Nazi terrorists; and c) the use of a Turkish Bayraktar attack drone against Donbass defence forces.
All this is in addition to the repeated shelling of civilian areas and infrastructure along with a hardening of state of war rhetoric by the Kyiv government—with U.Due south. backing.
Readying for War
The principal hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine lies with the Minsk peace accords—which includes a provision that would allow for considerable autonomy for the eastern provinces. Predictably, the U.S. and Ukraine have shown little interest in adhering to the Minsk accords.
A no-fly zone is currently being enforced by Russia in the airspace over the Donbass Republic. Russia cannot recognize the Donetsk Republic considering it would invite farther U.Southward. sanctions and efforts at political isolation; the Donetsk Commonwealth is considered to exist a renegade and the U.S. wants Russia to stay out of the war.
All military units of the DPR are currently on full combat alert. News reports and videos have appeared with Russian armor, including "hundreds" of heavy gainsay vehicles, and 80,000 to 90,000 troops, moving toward the Ukrainian border from the Bryansk, Voronezh and Rostov military districts. They are stationed at Novy Yerkovich—a 4-hour (250 km) drive to Kyiv—and along the edge near Kharkov, which lies a scant 30 kilometers from Russian federation'due south border.
The troop buildup indicates that Russia is prepared to defend the Donbass region, which consists of almost a one thousand thousand Russian citizens, and to potentially go further and liberate the function of Ukraine populated primarily by ethnic and Russian-speaking Russians.
The U.Southward./European union/NATO and Ukraine have all been pretending since 2014 that "Russian federation invaded Ukraine"—which it never did, though Ukrainian provocations make it more probable that it before long will.
The war in Ukraine is not a Ukrainian civil war, nor is it a war betwixt Russians and Ukrainians.
It is a war by resurgent international neo-Nazism, led past the USA confronting a people fighting for their autonomy backed by a reinvigorated Great Power, Russia, which wants to expand its regional influence and counteract a legitimate security threat on its edge.
Globe Flash Bespeak
The fight in Donbass is one of the major world'southward flash points aslope Syria and Taiwan—where U.S. provocations threaten a major state of war with Red china.
If the West forces a military confrontation with Russia in Ukraine, it can be sure it will face one with China over Taiwan simultaneously, neither of which it has any chance of winning. The Russians and Chinese take forged a partnership against Western, primarily U.S. aggression in the political, economical, and military spheres.
In Syria, the Turks (a NATO member) accept in contempo days straight threatened Russian military installations and troops; Should they really carry out attacks on Russians in Syria, Russia has made clear information technology will fire back. Turkish troops are now also on the ground in Ukraine, involved in combat operations confronting Donbass Defence force Forces. This too, is a major and recent escalation.
Russian federation Prepares Its Saddle
Only it is in Donbass that the situation is the most incendiary. In response to recent Ukrainian provocations and acts of terrorism, Russia is again sending a military job force to its edge with Ukraine, equally it did in the leap of this twelvemonth, which stopped the planned U.South./Ukrainian offensive in its tracks.
After the offensive was scrubbed and the state of affairs de-escalated, the Russian troops withdrew from the edge, but now over again have returned. This fourth dimension, indications are that the Russian formations are preparing to, at minimum, come into Donbass as peacekeepers, and possibly go as far as Kharkov and Odessa as Liberators. Maybe even to Kyiv.
Equally the recent words of Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev and others have fabricated articulate, the Russians have at present decided that the time for talking is over. In that location is an old maxim about Russians that applies perfectly well to the electric current situation—"The Russians are slow to saddle their horses, but when they do, they ride very, very fast."
Those horses accept at present been saddled.
Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
If the Russians were to deepen their involvement in the Ukraine, they would non be doing anything the U.S. and NATO have not done themselves on more than one occasion.
Russia not only has therightto protect its citizens, it has the responsibleness to do then, under international law.
The "R2P" or "Responsibility to Protect" concept is based on three "pillars" –
Pillar I—Each individual state has the responsibility to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, indigenous cleansing, and crimes against humanity.
Colonnade II—"States pledge to assist each other in their protection responsibilities."
Colonnade III—If any land is "apparently failing" in its protection responsibilities, then states should take commonage action to protect the population" in a "timely and decisive response."
The Un Security Council has recognized and reaffirmed its commitment to the R2P in more than 80 resolutions. R2P as such has the strength of international law.
The flip side of R2P is that it has been used as an excuse by the virtually powerful countries for international war crimes and has resulted in the trampling of state sovereignty.
One of the requirements of R2P is a UN Security Council resolution approving its implementation. Though this will never happen in the case of Ukraine, there can be no doubt that Ukraine is, in fact, guilty of all the crimes that R2P was created to forestall, including a) war crimes, b) ethnic cleansing, and c) crimes against humanity, all of which have been, and proceed to be, committed by the Kyiv authorities and its armed forces on a daily basis.
Russian intervention as such could exist justified under the R2P doctrine–though it is unlikely any NATO countries would acknowledge this.
Who Will End the Crimes Against Humanity?
The list of Kyiv'southward state of war crimes under international law include: a) deprival of water to almost 2.5 meg civilians in Crimea, b) the intentional targeting of civilians, journalists and medical personnel by artillery and snipers, c) random terror attacks on civilian areas, d) kidnapping, e) rape, f) torture and g) murder.
The Russians take over ii,000 specific war crimes cases open against the Kyiv regime and its proxies, and more are being opened daily. Even the USA has opened war crimes investigations into at least seven U.S. citizens who fought on the Kyiv side in the war.
These investigations into kidnapping, torture, rape, and murder are based on eyewitness, and video and forensic show. It volition be the first time the U.Southward. has prosecuted anyone nether the War Crimes Act since its passage into police in 1996, a quarter century ago.
The Ukrainian military has as of this writing massacred at least 10,000 ethnic Russian civilians. Some were killed in firm-to-house searches of civilian homes by paramilitary units wearing Nazi insignia on their uniforms. The Gestapo-like forces were searching for DPR and Russian passports and kidnapped those who had them.
The Russians cannot just stand by and let this to happen. And neither should Americans.
Western intellectuals take been quick to invoke R2P to support the bombing of Great socialist people's libyan arab jamahiriya and Syria and a host of other Middle East countries as a embrace for U.Due south. assailment. But how many will invoke the same doctrine when it can be applied to actually save people from large-scale ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity—if Russian federation is the i doing the saving? Probable none.
Office 2: Iii Options for Russian federation
The fashion I encounter it, Russian federation currently has three chief options:
1) The Donbass Program—The Russian Army can curl into Donbass as peacekeepers, along the electric current contact line from North of Lugansk to Mariupol, after publicly announcing it to the world a few hours ahead of time, in social club to warn the Ukrainian military against resistance, and to explain and justify its humanitarian intervention to the "international community." They would denote that they come in peace to stop the state of war crimes and the war, but that any military resistance from whatever source will be instantly eliminated, with the alarm, "If yous shoot at us, you die."
This ultimatum would be not-negotiable and backed upwards by Russian federation's full war machine power, including air and missile forces, and applied not just to Ukrainian military units, but to U.Due south. and NATO troops in Ukraine and U.S. and NATO ships in the Black Sea, too as anywhere else. Information technology can and should also include a reminder of Putin's previous quote that"Russia will reply to any attack by the destruction not merely of the source of the attack, just also the source of the orders for the attack."
This option would stop all terrorist attacks confronting Donbass, permanently and completely, and would hopefully give time for a diplomatic solution based on new political realities to be constitute. It would as well not entail the taking of any territory under Ukraine command, only that which has long been alleged under "Russian occupation".
Once it is seen that the Russians actuallyare coming, and they reallydo hateful business, information technology is unlikely that the Americans, NATO, or the Ukrainians volition fire a shot. This is the least confrontational and least risky arroyo, as information technology could be accomplished in a matter of 24 hours, with minimal bloodshed.
This may seem to be a pragmatic solution, but information technology has the least chance of finding a political compromise or permanent solution, in either the short or long terms. And while information technology would stop war crimes and protect Russian citizens, it would fail to resolve the overriding geopolitical issues Russia faces in Ukraine—argumentative war criminals on Russia'due south borders, the critical Crimean water security issue, foreign enemies in command of a neighboring state, etc. 1 advantage to this program, yet, is that could be used as a starting time phase of the Novorussia Programme.
2) The 2nd option is The Novorussia Plan. Under this plan, the Russians can liberate the surface area known as Novorussia, about one tertiary of current Ukraine, with majority indigenous Russian populations, running along a line from Kharkov to Odessa (inclusive). This not only protects the vast majority of indigenous Russians (not only those in Donbass) from Ukrainian depredations, information technology solves the critical humanitarian water crisis in Crimea, and cuts Ukraine completely off from the Black Sea. This will also eviscerate all that is left of the Ukrainian economic system and brainstorm the process of the dismantling of Ukraine forth ethnic lines while eliminating it as a land and as a threat to Russia one time and for all.
It volition too serve as an example to the globe of the new political reality that Russia reserves the right to defend itself, unilaterally, if need be, and that the nation with the most powerful military in the earth also has the political will to employ it, if information technology has no other pick and if it is forced to defend itself. This scenario has the best hope of long-term stability for the region, and fifty-fifty the possibility of a future re-integration of some parts of central Ukraine with Novorussia.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of war criminals would probably escape to the West, at least for a while.
3) The tertiary plan, the Kyiv Program, would be to go to Kyiv, which may or may not involve engaging in a major war. In the best case scenario for Russian federation, the U.S. and NATO would desert Ukraine in the face up of a existent fight and leave them on their own. Even if Ukraine did not capitulate in the offset few hours, any actual conflict could exist finished in a few days, and the process of de-Nazification and war offense trials could begin. In an alternative scenario, the U.Due south. and NATO would launch air strikes and the state of war could devolve into a quagmire for Russia, with the take chances of nuclear war intensifying.
My conventionalities is that the effect of the open up combat stage of the war would be along the lines of the First Iraq War, (with fourscore% – 90% of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering without firing a shot) but the subsequent "occupation" would actually be a real liberation. With the removal of neo-Nazis and corrupt oligarchs from positions of power, and the improvement of life quality and life chances for a vast majority of the population, most Ukrainians (with the exception of the rabid fascists in Galicia or Poland) will see the Russian Ground forces as their grandparents saw the Red Army, as heroes and liberators from foreign occupation—which is exactly what they would exist.
This may exist the to the lowest degree viable and to the lowest degree attractive of the three scenarios, but information technology is an option, and it would have the required result of stopping the war crimes against Russian citizens and eliminating Ukraine as an existential threat right on Russia'southward doorstep. It would as well have the benefit of the capture a large percentage of war criminals (Ukrainian and otherwise) as well as documents and prove that might be of groovy interest to history, Russian federation and the world—an selection worthy of serious consideration.
Of all three of these plans, the second, the Novorussia Plan has the most do good at the to the lowest degree cost. Only going to the contact line in Donbass is not sufficient to resolve the festering Ukrainian problem, and going all the style to Kyiv may well cost more it is worth. The Novorussia Plan resolves all critical bug at an adequate price, and can be implemented, if need be, equally a second phase of the Donbass Plan.
With the Voronezh troops coming in through (or effectually) Kharkov, Airborne and amphibious troops landing in (or around) Odessa, the Rostov Army coming upwards through Donbass, and the Crimean Army and Black Ocean Armada working along the coast, along with the Bryansk Regular army waiting in reserve and gear up to take Kyiv if required, the 700 Km Forepart, running from Kharkov to Odessa could be formed and held in a thing of days.
Once Russian fuel and human aid first to catamenia to liberated Novorussia, grateful citizens will not merely not oppose Russian "occupation," they will support it as genuine liberation, and even be prepare to defend it themselves from the cold and hungry Ukrainians who will be begging to be allowed to immigrate to Novorussia.
Incorrigible Nazis and war criminals will be rounded up, tried, and sentenced to work battalions in Donbass, to repair every single affair destroyed or damaged in the war, including the monument at Saur Mogila and all monuments to the Cerise Regular army Liberators in the newly liberated lands of Novorussia. The majority of Russian soldiers will quickly be costless to return to Russian federation, and leave the administration and protection of the newly liberated lands to their inhabitants.
Vladimir Putin has more than in one case recounted a lesson that he learned as a youth on the tough streets of Leningrad."If the fight is inevitable, it is best to strike showtime."
If war indeed breaks out, the chief responsibility would residual with the U.Southward. which triggered the current mess through its sponsorship of the Feb 2014 coup in Ukraine and gave a green-light for Ukraine to attack its Eastern provinces.
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About the Author
Russell Bentley is a one-time Texan who holds passports from Russia, the U.s. and the Donetsk People'southward Commonwealth.
Russell came to Donbass in 2014 and served in the VOSTOK Battalion and XAH Spetsnaz Battalion through 2015.
He then transitioned into the Data War, as a writer and video reporter, countering Western propaganda about the situation in Ukraine and Donbass.
He currently works equally an accredited war correspondent in the DPR, is married and lives in a small house with a large garden, 5 Km from the frontline in the ongoing Donbass War.
Russell can exist reached at: russellbbentley@gmail.com.
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Source: https://covertactionmagazine.com/2021/11/12/is-biden-looking-to-reignite-a-dirty-war-in-ukraine-recent-visit-by-u-s-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raises-concerns/
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